While I’m sure a lot of people wish the election could be done and dusted right the day after, this is really never the case. Sure, most of the races get called the day of the election (even when they shouldn’t have been) and most of the closely watched elections get called without all of the returns being in. However, every election cycle there are always a couple of races that have to go into overtime. Be it mail-in ballots, of which there are a lot of in California and Washington, recounts or provisional ballots. Here are the races that are yet to be called as of November 17th.
CA-21, David Valadao (R). 538 rating: Toss-up. Valadao has looked safe for most of the cycle, even as he got outraised in the last quarter (Valadao still led in overall fundraising). This held through election night, although the margin was, perhaps, closer than it should have been. Some may have called it too close for comfort. Since then, the race has substantially tightened. Valadao now leads Cox by 1%, or ~2,000 votes. Cox has closed the margin by winning more ballots that were counted after election day, and by a substantial margin at that. It’s still unclear if TJ Cox has enough votes in the counties where he’s favored to overturn Valadao’s lead, but this is worth keeping an eye on.
UT-04, Mia Love (R). 538 rating: Lean R. After election night, it seemed Love had been defeated by Ben McAdams (D) by a margin of about 3%. However, Love has made up that difference by getting massive amounts of non-election day votes in Utah county and substantially chipping away at McAdams’ lead in Salt Lake county. She’s actually in the lead now by ~400 votes. Not an impossible comeback, but challenging to be sure. How does one turn that around? Provisional ballots. There are about 35,000 provisionals that are left to be counted, and we have no idea where they may be coming from. If Dems can win this batch by a big enough margin, they may be able to turn this one around.
GA-07, Rob Woodall (R). 538 rating: Likely R. Republican Rob Woodall is ahead of Democrat Carolyn Bourdeax by ~420 (heh) votes, and I don’t think there are any ballots left to count. It is moving on to a recount. It’s unlikely that Bourdeax could end up winning after the recount is done, but it’s close enough that it deserves to be considered competitive.
NY-27, Chris Collins (R). 538 rating: Likely R. Not sure what to think here, actually. Seems like Collins should be safe, but there are enough uncounted provisionals that it’s not impossible for McMurray (D) to turn that around.
I guess that we’ll just have to see how these unfold to get a clearer idea of where these races stand. However, not counting state legislatures, once these races are done the election will finally be over.
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