The case for Biden for President.

After 2016 there was a lot of doom and gloom within the Democratic party about how they were losing white, working class voters in the rust belt. However, after the election a couple of weeks ago, democrats are not nearly as concerned. They took Governor’s mansions easily in Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania and dethroned Scott Walker in Wisconsin, a 2 term Republican governor who democrats despise. They also retained 6 senate seats in the rust belt, and you could say that they did so quite easily.

What I’m getting at here is this: democrats are looking stronger in the rust belt now than they did 2 years ago, but this was also a very favorable environment for them, so you’d expect them to make gains. The real question is: was this a realignment election or was it a wave in the traditional sense?

Joe Biden is the former Vice-President of the Obama administration. He was a senator for 46(!) years and ran for president twice (1988 and 2008). He is known for being a centrist democrat who compromises with Republicans and, more recently, by his inflammatory comments during the Anita Hill hearings.

If he ran, Biden would certainly be a formidable candidate. He’s a proven winner, having been elected to his first term in the senate through an upset, he’s a darling of the party establishment and, perhaps most importantly, he is leading in most polls right now. While polls this far out are really only a matter of name ID and not much else, early front-runners typically win their primaries, so Biden should feel hopeful.

The former Vice-President could have a pretty easy path through the primaries after all. If no champion of the left runs and campaigns like Harris’ or Booker’s eventually implode then he could, potentially, have a pretty easy path to the nomination.

However, things are almost never this easy.

There is almost certainly going to be another high-profile centrist Democrat fighting for that lane with Biden. Amy Klobuchar comes to mind. Michael Bloomberg comes to mind. Even if no one contests that lane, he could still have a hard time if a good candidate runs a good campaign, which almost certainly will happen because the field is so damn crowded with people stepping over themselves to run.

But let’s get back to the point I elaborated at the beginning of the article. Assuming Biden wins the primary relatively comfortably, what hardships would he face in the general election?

Well, for starters, there’s the problem of identity politics. If black voters in Florida weren’t enthusiastic enough to go out and vote for a black man, why would they be for an old, white male? Biden would almost certainly have problems in the sun belt. After all, it seems like that region isn’t quite there yet for Democrats. But this is also somewhere where Biden shines. He would probably have an easier time winning over midwestern, white, male voters. He could, conceivably, easily take Michigan Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and maybe put up a fight in Ohio (or maybe even take it, too).

In that sense, it’s easy to see why Biden could be a very good general election candidate. He would have a lot of electoral votes locked up and leaning towards him that other candidates might have a hard time taking (E.G. Pennsylvania).

So, that said, what are the main strengths and weaknesses of a potential Biden run for president?

STRENGTHS:

• A more uncontested lane in the primaries than the progressive left.
• Biden has led in most early polls.
• Potential appeal in early states like Iowa and New Hampshire.
• Biden is a good debater and a charismatic speaker.
• A real path to victory in the general through the midwest.

WEAKNESSES:

• Potential trouble winning over voters of color in the south (this could be especially devastating in the primaries).
• A track record of losing presidential bids.
• The Anita Hill hearings (this could prove to be a decisive factor or a paper tiger).
• The fact that he is a centrist democrat at a time when the party is moving leftward.
• The fact that he is an old, white man in a time when the party is looking for diversity
• Potentially being viewed as an insider and therefore not appealing anymore to the aforementioned white male voters.

All in all, I think he would be a really good candidate, electorally speaking. He would certainly get some big name endorsements and he would have an advantage in some early states just because of who he is. But, after all, this will be a very crowded primary, so whenever I say I think a candidate would be a good candidate that means I think they have a 1/5 shot at most. There’s just too many people. Who knows, maybe the 2020 democratic nominee will be a wild card like, say, Michael Avenatti. *Shivers*.