Elizabeth Warren, Tulsi Gabbard and the rest.

On December 31st, 2018, Elizabeth Warren announced that she was forming an exploratory committee to consider a run for president. This is the first step many candidates take in their journey for the presidency, and Warren is already touring through early states like Iowa and New Hampshire. It would be, to put it mildly, pretty damn unprecedented for her to not run for president after announcing an exploratory committee.

I have been pretty bullish on Elizabeth Warren in the past, but she’s had some rough patches since I published my last entry on this blog: bad net favorability ratings, dwindling enthusiasm, poll numbers falling, etc. And let’s not forget the whole DNA test debacle. All in All, the senator from Massachussets has seen her stock in the upcoming primary decline in the last month.

However, she still is one of the leaders of the progressive movement in the Democratic Party, and even if her results end up underwhelming she would need to be shut down before she wasn’t a force to contend with anymore. What I’m trying to say is: Senator Warren is going to be a pretty formidable candidate, and most other candidates who plan on winning are going to have to deal with her very high ceiling of possible support.

Candidates like Elizabeth Warren work because she appeals to both Party Loyalists (as Nate Silver calls them) and the left. She has been very progressive on a wide range of issues; from Medicare-for-all to free college, while also being part of senate leadership. She has influence inside the Senate’s Democratic caucus and has worked with leadership since she was elected in 2012.

I have already talked extensively about Warren in different entries, so I won’t repeat myself. But her running doesn’t only impact her chances.

Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont was probably counting on an Elizabeth Warren run not happening, as they both have strength among Millennials and the left. If Warren hadn’t run, then Sanders would probably have had more of a base to build upon and, consequently, an easier time. Sanders doesn’t seem to be going back on his efforts to run though, and POLITICO just released a piece about how he has «staffed up» recently, so who knows. Most relevant candidates should have announced by March, April at the latest, and the campaign will start to heat up soon thereafter when the first debate happens in June.

Another candidate that has announced her candidacy recently is Tulsi Gabbard, representative from Hawaii. I don’t believe Gabbard will really register at all in polls or debates, purely because there are so many attack lines. The social-conservative views that she used to hold, her meetings with Assad, etc. She has said that she has left her conservative views behind, but a lot of people are still skeptical. Just look at a recent debacle, where the congresswoman called senator Mazie Hirono «bigoted» for opposing the nomination of a catholic judge with a conservative record (Gabbard has gone on to oppose his nomination).

To point out another example of just how problematic her past views may be, just look at how she referred to a newspaper approaching her for a comment when she was still a state senator. Long story short, she called them the «homosexual extremists of Ed Case». A lot of voters may hear that and think «yuck. I’m not voting for her.».

Given everything I just mentioned, It’s hard to see her making a breakthrough. Her candidacy is predicated on progressive values, but they may be hard to reconcile with her past views and some present actions. If it was my choice, I would put Gabbard below the top 10 candidates that are most likely to win the nomination. Betting markets think there’s a 20% it won’t be on of the top 10 folks, so Gabbard is sharing a not-so-big percentage with a lot of people. We’ll see how this unfolds, but it’s hard to see her winning the presidency. After all, she may just want to gain a national profile.

We are far from over though. Kirsten Gillibrand is supposed to announce her run tommorow on the Colbert report (Tuesday). Harris and Booker are both expected to make announcements before the end of January. Sanders is starting up the old campaign machine he had been saving since 2016. Other prominent Democrats like Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke and Joe Biden are reportedly very close to a decision. And some lower tier candidates like Julián Castro and the aforementioned Tulsi Gabbard have already announced their intentions and are getting out the door quick. The 2020 machine is gearing up, and you won’t hear it stop working until November of next year. I say: god bless.

To anyone who has been wondering where I was for the past couple months, I was finishing exams and enjoying the Holidays. Didn’t really feel like writing back then, but I’m back in shape.