Throughout 2014 and most of 2015, Hillary Clinton looked poised to take the democratic nomination for president. most polls had her polling around 60%, sometimes even higher, and her possible challengers were way down below. The only one who came even remotely close was Joe Biden, and even he was a longshot.

Needless to say, this is not how things shook out.

Yes, Clinton did get around 55% of the vote, which is kind of close to what early polls showed. However it was not uncontested. The junior senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, put up a serious challenge, garnering 43% of the vote. The Sanders’ campaign’s wins were mostly centered in the midwest and the rust belt, while Clinton wins were more notorious in southern and very populated states like New York. Obviously, these last states have more people in them, thus are awarded more delegates. That was one of the main downfall of the Sanders campaign: he just couldn’t connect with southern voters of color, and those make up a great deal of the democratic base. Y’know, the people who ususally turn out in primaries.

Now, to shift the focus back to 2020, Sanders really could run again. There have reportedly been meetings with senior aides that dealt with a potential 2020 run. Those same aides have sometimes publicly encouraged Sanders to run again, as Jeff Weaver did in his book. And, perhaps most notably, Dave Weigel recently tweeted this out. To me, this is the nail in the coffin of those who say a second Sanders run is impossible. It’s obvious he’s thinking about it. Not only that, but he’s talking about it with other potential candidates.

So, let’s just assume that he does run, although I’m not entirely convinced. What would a Bernie 2020 campaign look like?

He would certainly be, at least, a force to contend with. He is in second, sometimes first place in the public nationwide polling, and he was first in a recent New Hampshire poll too (although the sample size was pathetically small). The question is whether or not other progressives decide to jump into the race. If, say, Elizabeth Warren ran, I think most of her votes would have backed Sanders if she didn’t run. However, this scenario is pretty unlikely IMO, as we have already touched upon the fact that Sanders is talking to other people.

So, with that said, let’s go down the calendar. What’s the first state in primary season? You already know the answer. It’s Iowa, and it’s electorate is particularly favorable to Sanders, I’d even argue that it favors him over Biden. A larger portion of Iowa democratic caucus-goers identified themselves as «liberal» relative to the rest of the country, so there’s obviously something in that for Bernie. The demographics favor him too: over 90% of the state’s population is white and only around 3% is African-American. Even if his campaign faulters and does worse than expected overall, he should still have a strong showing in Iowa.

Then we get to New Hampshire, which is kind of the same story, except it may be even more favorable to him, mainly because this state tends to like candidates from neighboring states, and Bernie would be exactly that. I mean, he blew Hillary out of the water 3 years ago. It’s unlikely that they swing against him.

And then we get to Super Tuesday (yes, i’m capitalizing that), which may be more of a bleak spot for Sanders. Lots of southern states, including Texas, and also California, which could be awesome or awful depending on how other factors shake out.

But that might not even matter. After all, it’s rare for a candidate to take both Iowa and New Hampshire and lose the nomination. Obama took Iowa but not New Hampshire and won. Same thing with Clinton. With Trump it was the other way around, but same point being made here.

You might have noticed that I completely skipped both South Carolina and Nevada in my roundup above. That’s because I don’t believe they have that much influence. Future articles will elaborate.

The general election map would look similar to Biden’s, except that Bernie could have more of a chance in a state like Arizona or Texas, given that he’s massively popular with latinos. So, moving over to the strengths and weaknesses:

STRENGTHS:

• Very favorable demographics and political environment in the first few primary states.
• Runner-up status from the last presidential primary.
• Strong polling, he’s consistently seond in most national polls.
• He doesn’t have to pivot to the left to appeal to the base of the party, he’s already there.
• Broad electoral college map.
• A possible opportunity to appeal to African-Americans.

WEAKNESSES:

• Trouble winning over people of color (this would mainly be a problem in the primary).
• He is an old, white man in a moment when the party is looking for diversity.
• He is not a natural debater, nor is he specially charismatic.
• Another left-wing candidate like Warren could split the vote.

Overall, I believe folks aren’t giving Sanders enough credit here. He literally got millions of votes last time around, so he’s proven he can do that. He just needs to win over a few more votes so sure up the nomination. And, frankly, I think it’s ridiculous that CNN and 538 have him so low in their rankings.

After 2016 there was a lot of doom and gloom within the Democratic party about how they were losing white, working class voters in the rust belt. However, after the election a couple of weeks ago, democrats are not nearly as concerned. They took Governor’s mansions easily in Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania and dethroned Scott Walker in Wisconsin, a 2 term Republican governor who democrats despise. They also retained 6 senate seats in the rust belt, and you could say that they did so quite easily.

What I’m getting at here is this: democrats are looking stronger in the rust belt now than they did 2 years ago, but this was also a very favorable environment for them, so you’d expect them to make gains. The real question is: was this a realignment election or was it a wave in the traditional sense?

Joe Biden is the former Vice-President of the Obama administration. He was a senator for 46(!) years and ran for president twice (1988 and 2008). He is known for being a centrist democrat who compromises with Republicans and, more recently, by his inflammatory comments during the Anita Hill hearings.

If he ran, Biden would certainly be a formidable candidate. He’s a proven winner, having been elected to his first term in the senate through an upset, he’s a darling of the party establishment and, perhaps most importantly, he is leading in most polls right now. While polls this far out are really only a matter of name ID and not much else, early front-runners typically win their primaries, so Biden should feel hopeful.

The former Vice-President could have a pretty easy path through the primaries after all. If no champion of the left runs and campaigns like Harris’ or Booker’s eventually implode then he could, potentially, have a pretty easy path to the nomination.

However, things are almost never this easy.

There is almost certainly going to be another high-profile centrist Democrat fighting for that lane with Biden. Amy Klobuchar comes to mind. Michael Bloomberg comes to mind. Even if no one contests that lane, he could still have a hard time if a good candidate runs a good campaign, which almost certainly will happen because the field is so damn crowded with people stepping over themselves to run.

But let’s get back to the point I elaborated at the beginning of the article. Assuming Biden wins the primary relatively comfortably, what hardships would he face in the general election?

Well, for starters, there’s the problem of identity politics. If black voters in Florida weren’t enthusiastic enough to go out and vote for a black man, why would they be for an old, white male? Biden would almost certainly have problems in the sun belt. After all, it seems like that region isn’t quite there yet for Democrats. But this is also somewhere where Biden shines. He would probably have an easier time winning over midwestern, white, male voters. He could, conceivably, easily take Michigan Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and maybe put up a fight in Ohio (or maybe even take it, too).

In that sense, it’s easy to see why Biden could be a very good general election candidate. He would have a lot of electoral votes locked up and leaning towards him that other candidates might have a hard time taking (E.G. Pennsylvania).

So, that said, what are the main strengths and weaknesses of a potential Biden run for president?

STRENGTHS:

• A more uncontested lane in the primaries than the progressive left.
• Biden has led in most early polls.
• Potential appeal in early states like Iowa and New Hampshire.
• Biden is a good debater and a charismatic speaker.
• A real path to victory in the general through the midwest.

WEAKNESSES:

• Potential trouble winning over voters of color in the south (this could be especially devastating in the primaries).
• A track record of losing presidential bids.
• The Anita Hill hearings (this could prove to be a decisive factor or a paper tiger).
• The fact that he is a centrist democrat at a time when the party is moving leftward.
• The fact that he is an old, white man in a time when the party is looking for diversity
• Potentially being viewed as an insider and therefore not appealing anymore to the aforementioned white male voters.

All in all, I think he would be a really good candidate, electorally speaking. He would certainly get some big name endorsements and he would have an advantage in some early states just because of who he is. But, after all, this will be a very crowded primary, so whenever I say I think a candidate would be a good candidate that means I think they have a 1/5 shot at most. There’s just too many people. Who knows, maybe the 2020 democratic nominee will be a wild card like, say, Michael Avenatti. *Shivers*.