It has now been close to a year since I last wrote anything for this blog, and while I know no one has been waiting for me to do so I felt the need to continue. The main reason? The Iowa caucuses are now exactly 15 days away and we are headed for a photo finish.

As of today, the candidates with a reasonabe chance at an Iowa victory are former Vice-President Joe Biden, Senator Bernie Sanders, Senator Elizabeth Warren and Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Buttigieg has lapped other minor candidates in the moderate lane, even those that looked great on paper (Steve Bullock comes to mind), while Senators Sanders and Warren compete for dominance within the progressive electorate. All the while, the Vice-President continues to cruise ahead in national polls, strong and stable and running a wave of perceived electability.

Joe Biden has managed a difficult feat: maintaining a lead in national polls throughout the primary season. The only candidate who has come even somwhat close to disputing that lead is Elizabeth Warren, who now is back in third place behind Bernie Sanders. His amazingly stable support, even if it isn’t that big a base, has been his main advantage during the year, and it may be a big reason as to why he’s still perceived as the most electable candidate against President Trump. However, this all pertains to his national standing. How is ol’ Joe doing in Iowa?

The answer is… complicated. As of today, Joe Biden leads the FiveThirtyEight polling average in Iowa by about 2%, although that lead is mostly coasting off of a questionable poll commissioned by the far-right news outlet Breitbart. Before that, he was in a dead heat with Sanders for first place. Thus, Joe Biden is underperforming in Iowa relative to his national support. That does not mean his support in Iowa is weak, though, as a first place in Iowa would almost surely make the rest of the primary calendar a walk in the park for the Vice-President thanks to his widespread minority support.

Senator Sanders is in second-best position to take the Iowa caucuses, so what would that entail for him? Well, for starters, it would mean he would be likely to carry both New Hampshire and Nevada to his camp, which would strengthen his position. After that, it’s mainly a question of how much Biden’s african-american support is willing to change into a Sanders outfit. If Sanders also wins South Carolina, then he’s off to the races.

Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg’s campaigns would likely be done if they don’t win a plurality of caucusgoers. Pete Buttigieg’s support is very light elsewhere, and the Senator’s sympathizers are still double guessing their support. An Iowa victory could take them very far, but anything short of that would mean near-certain doom for their organizations.

I’ll be taking an in-depth look at all of these candidates along the week, as this is only a quick piece to get back into the habit. I’m looking forward to covering the caucuses on this blog, and I hope all two of you will join me!